Tag Archives: truckee river flow

2023 Sees Big Snow Pack – so far

March came in like a lion with several continuous days of snow. January and February snows in the Carson Range and throughout the Sierra increased an already above-average snowpack for this time of the year to 179% in the Tahoe Basin and 169% in the Truckee Basin.

The welcome snow contrasts with the dry winters for the previous two winters. With climate change making ever hotter summers the Truckee River had low flows, Sierra reservoirs shrunk, and Lake Tahoe fell nearly a half-foot below its rim for 65 days last fall and early winter.

Atmospheric Rivers helped to build the snowpack

Lake Tahoe State Park at Spooner Lake Feb 22, 2023

Rain and then snow powered first by an “atmospheric river” and then a parade of January snow storms pushed the snowpack to over 150% in the Tahoe and Truckee Basin. Storms at the beginning and end of February continued to push the snowpack up and March is continuing the trend. As I write this, it is snowing lightly in Reno. (Another possible atmospheric river arriving in a couple of days could bring rain to lower elevation snowpack with a threat of increasing localized flooding possible.)

From nearly a half foot below its rim, Lake Tahoe today stands over two feet higher. With such a large snowpack yet to melt, Tahoe is set to rise considerably more. Likewise, reservoirs on the Truckee River system have storage available as evidenced by the following table of current levels.

Plenty of storage capacity remains in Truckee River Reservoirs

Reservoir NameStorage in Acre-feetCapacity in Acre-feetCurrent Storage %Remaining Storage in Acre-feetRemaining Capacity (%)
Stampede106,788226,50047.1%119,71252.9%
Prosser9,76729,84032.7%20,07367.3%
Boca18,74840,87045.9%22,12254.1%
Donner3,4529,50036.3%6,04863.7%
Independence (TMWA)13,59717,50077.7%3,90322.3%
Lake Tahoe
† Storage
208,900744,60028.1%535,70071.9%
Total361,2521,068,810 707,558 
March 8, 2023: Truckee River Upstream Storage

Where will this winter snowpack end up? March appears set to add more to the precipitation already received. The next storm system forecast is for rain at lower elevations below 7,000 feet to start.

Lake Tahoe from Mt Rose Highway Feb 22, 2023

The NRCS reports that “[a]s of March 1 the Reno Airport has seen 38.3 inches of snowfall through March 1 which is nearly twice normal for the entire winter.” The Airport has seen at least 4.5″ of snow fall since then.

Still, the total amount of precipitation from the winters of 1982-83 and 2016-17 exceeds this winter’s precipitation – so far.


† By court decree, the dam at Tahoe City, CA at the outlet to the Truckee River can raise the level of Lake Tahoe 6.1 feet to elevation 6,229.1 feet AMSL.

Truckee River flow to peak by May 1, 2021

The National Weather Service forecast model shows the flow of the Truckee River at Floriston, CA peaking by April 27. The extremely dry soils in the Truckee River watershed at both Lake Tahoe and the Truckee Basin are contributing to the lower runoff as well as the below average snowpack this year and last year.

The actual peak in river flows could be earlier if the weather remains warmer than expected or be later if cooler and stormier weather comes in. The 10 day forecast doesn’t appear to offer much in the way of precipitation through the first part of April, however. The Carson and Walker Rivers are also expected to have peak flows early.

Currently, the snowpack is melting fast and earlier than would be indicated by historical data. With an early melting of the snow, rivers and streams will likely be well below their average flow into the first part of the summer. The Truckee River, due to upstream storage in reservoirs and Lake Tahoe, will have summer flows while the Carson and Walker Rivers will likely be dry in early summer in many locations.

The snowpack's snow water equivalent (SWE) % of average compared to the % of forecast runoff in northern NV rivers. Runoff into the Truckee River is expected to be at or below 40% of average according to this forecast from the Nat'l Weather Service in Reno.
The snowpack’s snow water equivalent (SWE) % of average compared to the % of forecast runoff in northern NV rivers. Runoff into the Truckee River is expected to be at or below 40% of average according to this forecast from the Nat’l Weather Service in Reno. (National Weather Service Forecast from the Reno, NV office presentation)
Low flows for the Truckee River are expected summer and fall 2021.