Despite the rains of October in the central Sierra, Tahoe today is still 3.6″ below its rim and no water flows to the Truckee River from the Lake.  Most of the Truckee River flow comes from tributaries downstream of Lake Tahoe’s outlet including the Little Truckee River, its largest tributary. It is, however, likely that Tahoe will rise above its rim in the coming weeks as winter weather approaches. Filling Lake Tahoe to its maximum elevation would raise the current level more than 6 feet and require at least a 200 percent water year or double the long-term average annual precipitation of snow and rain.

October was a wet month in Reno with two storms that each produced over an inch of rain. It was extremely welcome after a long and very dry summer and early autumn. The storms resulted in record October rainfall for some places in the central Sierra and Lake Tahoe. Temperatures remained warmer than “normal”, however, until late November when it finally cooled off. Mt Rose Ski area on the Mt Rose Highway is reporting 13″ of snow at the lodge of natural and artificial snow and 25″ at the 9,800 foot level as I write this. Squaw Valley-Alpine Meadows Ski Resort in California reports a base of 28″ and anticipates up to 2 feet of snow from a series of storms predicted to arrive Wednesday a stay into Saturday. News of the wet October have made a hoped for wet winter in the central Sierra after last year’s dismal “El Niño” palpable. [Find an SFGATE report on the October rainfall/snowfall here.]

NOAA forecasts Northern California and Nevada will see a 50-50 chance of average precipitation under the “La Niña” conditions in the central Pacific Ocean. However, southern California and Nevada as well as most of the southwest and southeast US are forecast to see dry conditions during the “La Niña” winter. Some are saying that there is a good chance for more snow this year around Lake Tahoe northward to the Cascades.

The US Drought Monitor is still showing Reno in the Moderate to Severe drought category despite the recent rains, but soil moisture conditions have improved as you go north toward Oregon. California mostly remains in drought with a large portion of central and southern California in the most severe drought categories. Drought conditions in Nevada have moderated with western and southern Nevada remaining in the drought categories (click map for full size).

Truckee River flow through Reno is running around 200 cubic-feet-per-second (CFS).  Most of the water in the river, however, is not making it to Pyramid Lake, captured instead at Derby Dam and sent to Lahontan Reservoir through a canal.

Unfortunately, Pyramid Lake’s elevation continues to fall due significantly to the diversion of Truckee River water into the canal built by the Bureau of Reclamation in 1905 as its very first project. Water is taken out of the Truckee and sent through an unlined canal from Derby diversion dam on the Truckee all the way to Lahontan Dam on the Carson River. Since the beginning of the drought in 2000, Pyramid Lake has fallen approximately 27 feet in elevation exposing large land areas previously covered by water including shrinking the Lake on its south end to puddles near the mouth of the river. Most of the loss of water to Pyramid Lake is due to diversions to the Newlands Project, however, rather than the drought itself. (More on this later)

The Truckee Canal diversions have resulted in the loss of Winnemucca Lake in the valley adjacent to Pyramid Lake and the approximately 80 foot drop in elevation of Pyramid Lake itself since the early 1900s. This amounts to an approximately 8 million acre-foot water deficit for Pyramid Lake, the largest body of water entirely within Nevada or, in other words, represents nearly two decades worth of the average flow of the Truckee River that Pyramid Lake never received.

Pyramid Lake benefits from high precipitation years because of reduced diversions from the river when flows are high. During the drought starting in 2000 there have only been two periods of significant flows to Pyramid Lake which raised its level over the previous year. (click to see photo comparison at full size)

Will this year produce snow and rain that will finally raise Pyramid Lake’s level again and restore the flows to the Truckee River?

Click the either of the images below to see them full size.

The recent rain in the northern Sierra and western Nevada was certainly welcome.

I just saw a Facebook post declaring that “11 billion gallons of water added to Lake Tahoe …”. Yes, Tahoe did rise about 3″, so its elevation today is about 6,222.75′ but still 3″ below its rim. So by the Facebook post’s reckoning, there remains an 11 billion gallon deficit.

To be sure, the water year is just 3 weeks old and the 3 day rainstorm was a good start to the fall and winter season. Will we get a double or triple precipitation and snowpack year? We would need that and a lot more to make up for the 16 year drought the entire southwest has experienced.

While we can hope for a record-setting snowpack this winter, hope is not going to solve our continuing water crisis. We need to recognize the very real possibility that the average annual precipitation of the 20th century is less – perhaps far less – in the 21st century. The first sixteen years of this century have produced snowpack runoff resulting in only about 70% of the 20th century’s average river flows in the Truckee River. Expecting an end to the lower flows of the Truckee River is sticking our heads in the sand.

Not literally, I hope.

For a perspective on just how much less runoff we’ve gotten, look at a past truckeeriver.org article “Just 14 years ago …”  written in 2014.

Related articles across the web

• Obama at Lake Tahoe: Six things to know
• White House promises more federal aid for Lake Tahoe region